ETMarkets Smart Talk: We are hoping that 2024 will be a breakout year for India in terms of flows: Harendra Kumar

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

“We are hoping that 2024 will be a breakout year for India in terms of flows with more tailwinds than headwinds,” says Harendra Kumar, Managing Director, Elara Securities India.

In an interview with ETMarkets, Kumar said: “There is always some tactical money that finds its way in/out of India during some macro headwinds. There is more money waiting to come in, than to go out” Edited excerpts:

After hitting 20,200 on the Nifty50, the market is going through some healthy consolidation. In terms of global overhang, we have the US Fed outlook, a rise in Dollar index, crude, and recent Canada comments. Have we made a top?
The Nifty was around 18500 in Oct 2021, and it has taken us two years to reclaim the top — so it is hardly a euphoric event, except that it is a headline moment.

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Ambiguity on the course of the global economy is clearly weighing on a run-away rally.

2024 will hold more answers as the haze over US recession, inflation and India’s election clears and outcomes give more confirmatory signals.

Both the yields and markets cannot stay at an elevated level for too long. Either one will break down. Given that the Fed is resolute in its stand, do you think it could be the markets that break down first?
Indian largecaps have hardly rallied, so price damage at the headline will be minimal. The worst-case scenario will be that it could be a prolonged time correction.

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