Feroze Azeez, Deputy CEO, Anand Rathi Wealth, “the Indian market has operated with high inflation and a high interest rate economy for long periods of time. So, I do not see that as a big risk for India and if you look at the correlation between yields and the cash flows of FII, the correlation is significantly lower this time around.”
In the US 10-year, 4.8% has been breached. What are the other downside risks to the markets that can play out over the next year or so because markets are very close to all-time highs?
Of course, the 10-year Fed rate is at 4.8%. The last 10 years’ average of the 10-year Fed rate is 2.2%. We are trading at 150% greater in the US market. If you compare that to the Indian situation, the 10-year G-Sec average for the last 10 years is close to 6.8%. We are at 7.3%, that is just less than 10%. But in the US 10-year, there is a 150% rise, that is point one.
This is a big risk, but India has been a beneficiary of this risk. In fact, eight-nine months back, I had gone to Boston to meet some fund managers who manage a few trillion dollars. I tagged along with somebody who was big enough for me to get an audience with them and it was very surprising that most of them bet that US will slip into an induced recession and they were heavyweight India because the problem the globe is grappling with is business as usual for us.
We have operated with high inflation and a high interest rate economy for long periods of time. So, I do not see that as a big risk