Five things to watch for in these Assembly polls
Narendra Modi on the one hand, and a bevy of Parliamentarians from Delhi descending to contest state elections on the other, especially in Madhya Pradesh. This is being seen as a strategy to counter anti-incumbency and project a new image to voters. In bilateral contests, especially close ones, smaller parties can play spoilers.
And there’s plenty of scope in this round. In 2018, in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, nearly two in five seats saw the vote share of the third-placed candidate exceed the winning margin, indicating very close contests at the top. In about one in five seats, this was also the case with the fourth-placed candidate.
Elsewhere, Mizoram was a three-way contest in 2018, and will be in 2023 also. In Mizoram, a Christian-dominated state, 39 of 40 seats are reserved for candidates from the scheduled tribes (STs). It’s currently ruled by the Mizo National Front (MNF), which is part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance at the centre.
In the aftermath of the ethnic violence in neighbouring Manipur, the MNF has been distancing itself from the BJP. Other parties, notably the Zoram People's Movement and the Congress, are looking to exploit these fault lines. It’s not just Mizoram that has a high share of ST population.
Overall, across the five states, this round will see 14% of seats reserved for candidates from the scheduled castes (SC) and 22% for ST candidates—a total of 36%. By comparison, in the Lok Sabha, 24% of seats are reserved. One of the planks of BJP’s electoral success has been to draw voters from these communities.
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