Global 2024 staple food supplies to be strained by dry weather, export curbs
El Nino & Food Production The El Nino weather phenomenon, which brought dryness to large parts of Asia this year, is forecast to continue in the first half of 2024, putting at risk supplies of rice, wheat, palm oil and other farm products in some of the world's top agricultural exporters and importers. Traders and officials expect Asian rice production in the first half of 2024 to drop as dry planting conditions and shrinking reservoirs are likely to cut yields.
World rice supplies tightened this year already after the El Nino weather phenomenon cut into production, prompting India, by far the world's biggest exporter, to restrict shipments. While other grains markets were losing value, rice prices rallied to their highest in 15 years in 2023, with quotations in some Asian export hubs gaining 40%-45%.
India's next wheat crop is also being threatened by lack of moisture, which could force the world's second-largest wheat consumer to seek imports for the first time in six years as domestic inventories at state warehouses have dropped to their lowest in seven years. Come April, farmers in Australia, the world's No.
2 wheat exporter, could be planting their crop in dry soils, after months of intense heat curbed yields for this year's crop and ended a three-dream run of record harvests. This is likely to prompt buyers, including China and Indonesia, to seek larger volumes of wheat from other exporters in North America, Europe and the Black Sea region.
"The (wheat) supply situation in the current 2023/24 crop year is likely to deteriorate compared to last season," Commerzbank wrote in a note. "This is because exports from important producer countries are likely to be significantly lower." On the bright side for grain supplies,
. Read more on livemint.com
