Golden Goose shoes: What’s it worth for investors?

livemint.com:

Golden Goose Group is seeking to list in Milan in an initial public offer (IPO) that could value the maker of $500 distressed sneakers at about €3 billion ($3.2 billion) including net debt. The company, the vast majority of which was bought by private equity group Permira for about €1.3 billion in 2020, is wooing investors as a luxury brand. But it looks more like Dr Martens, in that it’s reliant on a signature shoe style that risks falling out of fashion.

Its valuation should reflect this. True, there are some differences with the British bootmaker, which has had a torrid time since listing in early 2021. Golden Goose has a higher-bracket market positioning than Dr Martens, selling shoes for up to $2,000 a pair, compared with up to $200 for Dr Martens boots.

It’s also less dependent on selling through third-party retailers in the US, which can be volatile. Part of Golden Goose’s appeal is that the shoes can be customized in its retail network of about 190 stores, a draw for younger shoppers who value individuality and with whom the brand is popular. This formula has generated impressive growth, with 2023 sales up 18% excluding currency movements to €587 million, and adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda) up 19% to €200 million.

Expansion continued in the first quarter of this year, although sales growth slowed to 12% while Ebitda was up 17%. The high price point and customization delivered a full-year 2023 operating margin of 25%, around the level of the big luxury groups, excluding the much more profitable Hermes International. Golden Goose is aiming to expand sales to €1 billion by 2029, implying continued growth over the next five years.