HCL Tech’s growth premium is vanishing. Can AI help win it back?
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.HCL Technologies shares plummeted more than 10% on Wednesday after a weak earnings report for the March quarter (Q4FY26) and full year FY26 led to analyst downgrades. The company’s modest revenue guidance for FY27 has raised questions about whether its stock deserves to trade at a valuation that’s in line with or higher than those of rivals such as TCS and Infosys.HCL has forecast revenue growth of 1-4% in constant currency terms, down from its previous year's initial guidance of 2–5%. This outlook is primarily driven by an expected 1.5-4.5% growth in services.Client-specific headwinds in telecom, manufacturing and retail could shave about 50 basis points (bps) off growth, it cautioned.
The guidance, which does not include two acquisitions (Telecom solutions group HPE and Jaspersoft) due to delayed US government approval, is weaker than expected, and narrows its growth differential versus competitors. This should eventually reflect on valuations.After Wednesday's correction, HCL trades around 17.8 times estimated FY27 earnings based on a Bloomberg consensus, versus 16.2 times for TCS and 17.9 times for Infosys. “HCL’s premium multiple is premised on the fact that it can grow faster than other large caps.
At the midpoint (of the guidance), that growth premium disappears. We now expect around 3% services growth (organic). Importantly, the full impact of the client-specific issues is yet to play out, and we expect H1 to be soft,” said Motilal Oswal Financial Services.HCL’s constant-currency revenue fell 3.3% sequentially, missing the consensus estimate of a 1.6% decline.
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