headline: A coin flip or advantage Trump? Opinion polls could’ve got it wrong.
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Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Pollsters expect the US presidential election of 5 November to be unpredictable, almost tied, a reading that is well within the polling margin of error, both nationwide and in the country’s seven crucial swing states. However, what does a tied race really mean? Interestingly, Donald Trump addressed a rally in New York City’s Madison Square Garden around a week prior to the election.
Although almost no Republican expects to win on deep blue turf like New York, it may help some Republican incumbents hold their Congressional seats. Trump has visited places in other Democratic-dominated states, such as Chicago in Illinois for an economic forum recently, Long Island in New York state for a rally in the summer and the Coachella Valley in California last month. A president benefits from having a majority in the US Congress, but unless he is sure of winning, why would he waste valuable campaign time outside swing states? Indeed, pollsters have understated Trump’s support in the last two elections.
Also, Democrats lost the White House despite leading the popular vote in both 2000 and 2016, highlighting the peculiarity of the US electoral college system. The conservative support base has historically been underestimated by pollsters. In the UK, ever since John Major’s re-election in 1992, it has been referred to as the ‘Shy Tory’ factor in Britain.
Compared to Labour voters, Conservatives are thought to be less inclined to show their allegiance. The success of the Republican Party in the US has also been analysed using this approach. In this case, the ‘Shy Trump supporter’ factor refers to people’s reluctance to reveal their support for Trump, who is a controversial figure.
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