This week's Federal Reserve meeting is likely to mark a substantial turning point for policymakers who have spent the past two years battling runaway inflation.
That there's virtually no chance central bank policymakers will vote to raise rates is beside the point: What is likely to occur when the Federal Open Market Committee session wraps up Wednesday is a policy turn away from aggressive rate hikes and toward plans for what happens next.
«This would be the third straight meeting where the Fed remained on hold and, in our view, means that the Fed likely sees itself as done with the hiking cycle,» Michael Gapen, U.S. economist at Bank of America, said in a client note.
While acknowledging that future accelerations in inflation could force the Fed to raise rates further, «we think that a cooling economy is more likely and that the narrative should shift in the direction of cuts over hikes in 2024,» Gapen added.
That move to cuts, though likely expressed in a subtle way, would represent a major pivot for the Fed after 11 interest rate hikes.
Along with an announcement on rates, the central bank also will update its projections on economic growth, inflation and unemployment. Chair Jerome Powell also will deliver his usual post-meeting news conference, where he either could discuss a strategy to ease policy now that inflation is decelerating, or continue to talk tough, an outcome that could rattle markets.
Here's a quick rundown in what to expect:
In its post-meeting communique, the rate-setting FOMC almost certainly will say that it is holding its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5%.
There also could be some language tweaks on the committee's assessment of employment, inflation, housing and
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