Here’s what’s shoring up the global economy during the energy shock
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.TOKYO—One of the major surprises about the gravest energy shock since the 1970s is how resilient much of the world has been so far.The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has yanked around 13 million barrels of oil a day from global energy supplies. Blackouts have hit Pakistan, the Philippines has imposed a four-day workweek, and countries including Slovenia and Bangladesh have rationed fuel.
The risk that the world sinks into recession is rising with each day the waterway remains shut. The price of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, has risen more than 50% since the strait was closed.Even so, in the two months since the strait was closed by Iran in response to U.S.
and Israeli attacks, many of the world’s major economies have been soldiering on in contrast to the swift downturns that accompanied similar energy crises in the 1970s and 1990s. Stock markets are touching record highs.This resilience reflects ample energy reserves, policies to help consumers, and the offsetting effects of the artificial-intelligence boom that is powering trade and business investment in the U.S.
and beyond.It also highlights an underappreciated shift in the workings of the global economy. Over the years, countries have become steadily more energy efficient, squeezing more economic activity out of each drop of oil or cubic meter of natural gas burned.
The energy needed to generate a dollar of gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, has since 2000 fallen by about a third in the U.S. and Europe and by about 40% in China, according to World Bank data.Better energy efficiency “cushions the shock” from supply disruptions, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in April.
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