How the world economy learned to love chaos
global GDP grew by about 3%. The early signs suggest progress is continuing at the same rate this year. Data from Goldman Sachs, a bank, indicate that global economic activity is about as lively as it was in 2019.
A measure of weekly GDP produced by the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, finds similar results. A measure of global activity produced from surveys of purchasing managers (so-called PMI data) points to strongish growth across the world. Labour markets are even stronger.
The unemployment rate across the OECD remains comfortably below 5%. The share of working-age folk actually in a job, a better measure of labour-market strength, is at an all-time high. Healthy job markets are boosting family finances, which have been hit by inflation.
Real household disposable incomes across the G7 shrank by 4% in 2022, but are now growing once again. True, some countries are doing less well. Chinese growth figures continue to disappoint.
Some of those coming out of Europe are concerning. Germany, facing fallout from high energy prices and competition in its famed car industry from Chinese electric-vehicle exports, may be in recession. But there are also stronger showings.
In January total nonfarm payroll employment in America rose by 353,000—a blow-out figure, surpassing almost all expectations. So far there does not seem to be much evidence that problems in the Red Sea are derailing the economy. PMI data suggest that manufacturers are facing longer delivery times.
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