El Nino hits foodgrain production in 2023-24 crop year
NEW DELHI : India’s foodgrain production is estimated to be 6.1% lower in the 2023-24 crop year (July-June) because of poor monsoon caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon, potentially adding to inflationary pressures ahead of the general election. Total foodgrain production in 2023-24 is estimated to be 309 million tonnes (mt), according to the second advance estimates issued by the agriculture and farmers’ welfare ministry on Thursday. Foodgrain production in the 2022-23 crop year was pegged at 329.6 mt, as per the government’s final estimates.
Despite the poor monsoon, the government has raised its kharif foodgrain production estimate to 154.1 mt from the 148.5 mt it had projected in October. The agriculture ministry anticipates rabi foodgrain production in the current crop year to be 155.1 mt. However, overall foodgrain production for both kharif and rabi seasons (monsoon and winter crops) has been pegged lower on year due to patchy monsoon, weighing on water reservoir levels and shifting the crop calendar.
Lower crop output may keep the prices of some crops such as rice, tur, urad and maize firm, adding to the inflationary pressure. In the first advance estimate, the government only releases kharif crops data. In the second advance estimate, it releases data for rabi and revises the kharif data.
Production of wheat, the main rabi crop, is estimated to be a record 112 mt, against last year’s 110.55 mt. Rice output, however, is estimated lower at 123.8 mt from last season’s 135.7 mt.
The estimate on tur production for the current season has been lowered to 3.33 mt from the October estimate of 3.42 mt, but on par with the previous year’s output.
