India inflation likely rose to 3.8% in April as food prices hardened: Mint poll

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.India’s retail inflation likely rose to 3.8% in April from 3.4% in March, moving closer to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target of 4% as food prices firmed up across key categories and favourable base effects continued to fade, according to the median estimate of 20 economists polled by Mint. Official data is due on 12 May.Economists expect Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for April to print between 3.5% and 4.2%, with all respondents anticipating further firming under the revised CPI series with 2024 as the base year.India’s retail inflation had risen to 3.4% in March from 3.21% in February, driven by higher food and energy prices amid tensions in West Asia.“CPI inflation is expected to rise in April 2026 from March, largely on account of hardening food and beverages inflation led by edible oils, vegetables, and readymade food segments,” said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ratings agency Icra Ltd.Economists at Societe Generale said simultaneous increases in vegetable and edible oil prices tend to broaden food inflation pressures, raising the risk of spillovers into headline inflation.

Food inflation, which accounts for nearly 35% of the CPI basket, has steadily accelerated from 2.1% in January to 3.9% in March.Food inflation is also being amplified by rising global commodity prices amid supply-chain disruptions linked to the West Asia conflict and elevated freight costs. The United Nations’ global food price index in April touched its highest level in more than three years, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization.Economists said core inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices, is likely to have remained broadly stable in April, aided by