India's Q2 economic growth likely took a hit from heavy rains and corporate struggles: ICRA
ICRA. This moderation is attributed to challenges such as heavy monsoon rains and weaker corporate margins, which offset the positive effects of increased government capital expenditure and a strong kharif sowing season. Gross Value Added (GVA) is also expected to see a marginal dip, with growth estimated at 6.6% in Q2 FY2025, compared with 6.8% in Q1 FY2025.
“Q2 FY2025 saw tailwinds in terms of a pick-up in capex after the Parliamentary Elections as well as healthy expansion in sowing of major kharif crops. However, sectors faced headwinds due to heavy rainfall and weak margins. We project a slight dip in India’s GVA and GDP growth in Q2 FY2025 to 6.6% and 6.5%, respectively,” Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, write in a note.
Government capital expenditure showed a promising recovery in Q2 FY2025, rising by 10.3% YoY to ₹2.3 trillion, reversing the sharp 35% contraction witnessed in Q1 FY2025. This rebound was led by key infrastructure-focused ministries such as the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways and the Ministry of Railways, which posted growth rates of 41.7% and 8.0%, respectively. However, the pace of state government spending remained muted, with the combined capital outlay and net lending of 22 states increasing by only 2.1% YoY in the quarter.
The industrial sector is anticipated to experience the most notable slowdown, with GVA growth expected to moderate to 5.5% in Q2 FY2025, from 8.3% in the preceding quarter. This decline is driven by a significant reduction in electricity generation
