India to receive ‘above normal’ monsoon this year, says IMD

financialexpress.com:

India is likely to witness ‘above normal’ monsoon this year, said the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Monday. It added that the rainfall is likely to be 106 per cent of LPA with a model error of ± 5 per cent. The cumulative rainfall is estimated at 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) of 87 cm, the IMD said in a release. 

According to the MeT department, El Niño conditions are likely to weaken further during the early part of the monsoon season. La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the second half of the monsoon season, it added. 

“At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and the latest Climate model forecasts indicate that the positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the later part of the southwest monsoon season,” it stated. 

IMD said that above-normal rainfall is expected in most parts of India, except in some regions of northwest, east and northeastern states.

La Nina conditions, which are associated with a favourable monsoon in India, are likely to set in by August-September, IMD added.

IMD Chief Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said, “Data from 1951 to 2023 shows India experienced above-normal monsoon rainfall on nine occasions when La Nina followed El Nino event.”