Indian equities traders seek cues from election shadow bets
Traders in India's stock markets are turning to illegal election betting platforms for clues to combat the uncertainty facing citizens and markets alike regarding the outcome of a long general election.
Weeks before vote counting set for June 4, stock markets are closely tracking shadow-betting platforms that are flourishing nationwide, with wagers now suggesting the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win a slimmer majority than expected.
Having reached record highs just before voting began, India's S&P BSE Sensex benchmark has turned volatile as reports of lower turnout and voter fatigue fan doubts about the margin of victory for the ruling party.
The shadow betting market now predicts Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party will win just under 300 of parliament's 543 seats, not the super majority of close to 400 it sought.
The last major opinion poll before the election predicted the BJP and its allies could win three-quarters of the seats in parliament.
Stock market traders are adjusting portfolios accordingly.
Jaimin Patel, a retail investor in the equity market for more than 20 years, said he used the shadow betting market to «keep track of what others are tracking».
The election uncertainty has prompted Patel to lighten his positions in India's small- and mid-cap stocks over the last two weeks.
Foreign investors have withdrawn more than $3 billion from Indian stocks in May, or almost half the inflows in the first four months of 2024, and are hedging their portfolios.
«At the back of the mind,
