inflation pressures in the United States decreased in October compared to the preceding month. The Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation gauge, disclosed by the bank, revealed a reading of 2.6 percent for October, down from September's 2.88 percent. The bank attributed the higher MCT level, compared to its pre-pandemic average, to specific trends in housing and non-housing services.
The NY Fed MCT index serves the purpose of assessing inflation persistence and the extent of changes in price pressures. This report coincides with the upcoming final policy meeting of the year for Fed officials. Expectations are widespread that they will maintain the overnight interest rate target within the range of 5.25-5.5 percent.
Indications suggest that the current rate target set by the central bank appears to be at its peak. Numerous Fed officials have indicated in recent weeks that with inflation pressures significantly lower than their pandemic peak, they have the flexibility to evaluate new data before deciding whether to adjust rates or maintain the status quo. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking on December 1, noted that the economy is "better balanced" and stated satisfaction with the trajectory of economic development, expressing, "We are getting what we want." New York Fed leader John Williams, in an address on November 30 remarked, "Based on what I know now, my assessment is that we are at, or near, the peak level of the target range of the federal funds rate." The NY Fed MCT reading has mirrored a broader decline in price pressures.
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