Vinay Jaising, MD, JM Financial Services, says “for us, capex and industrials put together, had north of a 50-55% growth. Railways, again, fantastic growth. So that space, in terms of earnings trajectory, did really well. In energy, we are underweight but that did extremely well, courtesy the OMCs. I do not know how long that will sustain or whether we will start seeing either crude prices move up or margins move down, but overall in terms of numbers, a 20 plus percent year-on-year increase in capex made our overall portfolio earnings go up north of 25% and that was exciting for us.”
The markets got mighty enthused by the big GDP number. There has been two back-to-back strong readings on the GDP. In the last commentary, the RBI governor already took their own estimate for GDP higher, above 7%. Other rating agencies could follow soon. Is this growth sustainable? The market will start looking for valuations if the growth is not sustainable, but growth appears to be falling in place now?
Vinay Jaising: Absolutely.
It is very important to understand that India's GDP growth is in a positive territory. Whether this 8% plus because of a subsidy reduction will go to the GVA of 6.5% inching up to 7% plus we have to see. For the next year, that is a more steady state.
Now, look at 7% plus of real GDP growth for the country and inching up as times come, as capex really plays out and as corporate India's earnings increase and finally, when the consumption cycle also comes up. It will take six to nine months and we will see a better growth trajectory for India.
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