Is the S&P 500 Forming a Local Top?

investing.com:

It has been an interesting two years since the S&P500 struck its all-time high at $4818 on January 4, 2022. Although the Bears feel pretty beat up by now and the Bulls invincible (the latest weekly AAII reading stands at only 24% Bears and a whopping 45% Bulls) remember the Bulls have so far been the losers. So, if you are a Bear and have lost money, please examine your entry and exit strategies. Namely, this has been a tough market for everyone, as many probably sold longs and/or covered shorts too late. Market participants have been so conditioned to trending markets since at least 2009 and possibly as early as 1974 (!) that many have forgotten, or may never have experienced, that sideways is an option, too. The main winners since the ATH are those who stayed nimble, took (partial) profits, and raised stops prudently.

Moreover, regular readers may recall that already in early August, see here, we warned that per the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), a significant top could be forming. We followed up on our forecast regularly, with the market throwing the obligatory and occasional curve ball. But by the end of October, the index had lost 11%. We then found, see here, that a reversal was likely and that the market could rally to $4800+. In our last update, we showed the potential was in place for a rally to be as high as ~$ 4550. And here we are; today, the index reached as high as $4587.

However, the index reached the target zone more directly than anticipated as the more pronounced pullback we expected didn't materialize but was contained to one down day (November 9). It happens; we cannot foresee everything, and since the market doesn't owe us anything, we must acknowledge that no system, pundit, or analyst can be 100%