Israel, Iran seek deterrence but risk escalation
TEL AVIV—Israel’s military has long followed a clear policy: When enemies hit us, we strike back so hard they won’t do it again. That deterrence is no longer working. Iran, after launching a massive missile-and-drone attack on Israel over the weekend, is threatening to strike again if Israel retaliates.
Lebanese militia Hezbollah fires at Israeli forces almost every day despite frequent poundings by Israel. And Hamas continues to launch rockets at Israel even after being bludgeoned following its Oct. 7 attack, which killed 1,200 people, according to Israeli officials.
With no side willing to compromise for fear of showing weakness and all players seeking greater deterrence, the risk of stumbling into a regional war increases. “If they continue to exchange blows, it’s a slippery slope to a real escalation," said Ofer Fridman, a former Israeli officer and scholar of war studies at King’s College London. Deterrence—the principle that any attack will be met by a far more punishing response—is the foundation of defense for most countries.
It has been one of three pillars of Israel’s strategic culture for decades, Fridman said. If deterrence fails, then Israel relies on early warning of any attack. If both fail, then Israel seeks to rapidly inflict a crushing, even humiliating defeat on the battlefield so that deterrence is restored and the adversary doesn’t dare strike at Israel again—at least for many years.
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