Israel unbound

Israel’s strike on Hamas targets in Qatar in September, the United States began pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza. But with or without one, Israel will continue to pursue expansive goals, redrawing borders in the West Bank, southern Lebanon, and southwestern Syria in ways that could further fracture its neighbors.

The Axis of Resistance is, for all intents and purposes, no longer the grave threat that it once was. In its absence, the Levant is being carved into a pliable “axis of minorities,” with Alawite, Druze, Maronite, Shia, and Sunni camps competing against one another within an expanding Israeli sphere of influence.Thus, the regional balance of power that was obtained before 2023 has changed profoundly.

The war has not only empowered Israel and weakened Iran, but also diminished the roles of both the US and the region’s Arab power brokers. While the US and its allies have finally led a push to end the Gaza war, it is not clear that a ceasefire and prisoner exchange will produce a viable peace agreement, and, failing that, how regional stability will be restored, or what a new regional order will look like.

For the foreseeable future, the Middle East will be bracing for prolonged conflict and simmering chaos.Israel’s warmaking has not served any political goal that would unite the region or foster alliances. Its definition of regional stability is tied to its own military supremacy.

But it is a mistake to think that its unrivaled capabilities will constitute a viable basis for regional order. It is more likely that Israel’s drive for supremacy will be met with new and different forms of resistance, fueling ongoing conflict.America’s role in the Middle East since the Hamas attack has been sporadic and largely reactive.