Japan is living in the shadow of the megaquake that could kill 320,000, trigger 10m tsunami waves & cause $1.5 tn damage
Japan is to live with the risk of a devastating earthquake at any time.
Usually, however, people tend to view that threat in the abstract. It’s kind of like thinking about death — I know I’ll die someday, but I hope it won’t be today. And so far, at least, I keep getting lucky.
Until we don’t. Thursday’s announcement from Japanese authorities, warning of an increased risk of a long-feared megaquake, forced citizens to consider the very real and immediate danger of an event that would devastate the country and upend life as we know it.
Following a 7.1 magnitude tremor off Kyushu, the country’s weather agency issued for the first time ever a warning that the likelihood of the long-feared Nankai Trough quake had increased “by several times.” The fault, stretching some 900 kilometers (560 miles) down Japan’s Pacific coast from Shizuoka to Shikoku, is feared for a reason. It has caused temblors of magnitude 8 or more, accompanied by devastating tsunamis, around every 100 to 150 years. The country has repeatedly warned that another is imminent, with estimates of a 60% probability of it hitting in the next 20 years, and 90% in the next 40 years. Now, authorities are saying that peril has become even higher.
People were unsure how to react. What does “relatively higher” risk mean? Should we change our plans? Was this a warning, or a prediction?
The risk of the Nankai Trough earthquake occurring is debatable. But the risk from such an event is hard to overstate. When it comes to dreaded earthquakes in Japan, this is the
