Also Read- Top 7 investment trends to look out for 2024 Another reason for Jefferies expecting on market scaling new highs is that they expect improvement in foreign inflows during 2024. Key triggers for Foreign Portfolio Investor flow as per Jefferies will be peaking Dollar, May'2024 general elections and rising significance of India in global markets.
Referring to Chinese equities that saw foreign inflows of more than $50 billion per year during Calendar Year 2017-2021, while the size of the Chinese market and economy is much bigger Jefferies said that the global environment wasn't conducive for EM flows The Indian markets have already been well supported by the domestic institutional flows wherein the rise of 'SIPs' (systematic Investment plans) continues to create consistent liquidity pool. Jefferies does not foresee a disruption to the domestic flow particularly as fixed income has become less attractive due to tax changes.
Apart from domestic flows remain supportive and improvement in foreign flows heling gains for Indian stock markets, another reason for market scaling new highs is that India’s multi-year capex cycle has started unfolding. All the three elements of the capex cycle (Housing, Corporate Capex & Govt Capex) are now firing and hence the potential global slowdown should have limited impact on India, said Jefferies Also expected potential Government capex slowdown won't hurt the broader capex cycle.
Strong tax collections and subdued social spending allowed the Government to raise Capex 3 times over past 5 years. Expected fiscal consolidation by 140bps over the next 2 years implies governments Capex could slow down, but private capex (75% of GFCF or Gross fixed capital formation) pick-up should more than
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