



Jindal Steel’s capacity push is in place. Volume growth needs to follow now
steel prices in Q3FY26 to date are down 2-5% quarter-on-quarter, according to Antique Stock Broking.The impact is most visible in profitability. After Ebitda per tonne fell to ₹10,027 in Q2FY26, down 12.7% year-on-year and 36% sequentially, Nuvama Research expects a further decline in the December quarter (Q3FY26), to about ₹8,200. Ebitda is short for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.That implies a sequential drop of nearly ₹1,800 per tonne, driven by higher coking coal and iron ore costs.
“Steel spreads are likely to weaken, but bottom in Q3FY26,” the brokerage said in its December visit note, adding that recovery should begin only from Q4FY26 as prices stabilize. This is the trough the market is currently fixated on.As far as capacity addition is concerned, since September, Jindal Steel has commissioned 3 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of new capacity, taking crude steel capacity to 12.6mtpa. Another 3mtpa is scheduled to come on stream by March, lifting the capacity to 15.6mtpa.
Utilization remains low at around 40-45%, reflecting the early stage of ramp-up rather than a demand constraint. A timely ramp-up is central to the company’s volume outlook. Jindal Steel reiterated its FY26 sales guidance of 8.5-9mt.
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