JPMorgan’s S&P 500 outlook for 2024 is grimmest on Wall Street
Wall Street strategists call for all-time highs in US stocks in the year ahead, JPMorgan Chase & Co. stands apart, releasing the gloomiest forecast so far among its peers.
The S&P 500 Index is set to drop to 4,200 by the end of 2024 — roughly 8% from its current level — as global growth decelerates, household savings shrink and geopolitical risks remain high with national elections including those in the US that could add to policy volatility, according to Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, the bank’s chief global equity strategist.
The call reiterates the bank’s outlook heading into this year that has fallen short, with US stocks headed toward a double-digit annual gain amid economic resilience.
“Absent rapid Fed easing, we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year with softening consumer trends at a time when investor positioning and sentiment have mostly reversed,” Lakos-Bujas wrote Wednesday in a note to clients, along with his team, including chief market strategist Marko Kolanovic.
JPMorgan’s view breaks from much of Wall Street, which has seen a growing number of prognosticators unleash calls for the S&P 500 to set record highs. Savita Subramanian at Bank of America Corp and Binky Chadha at Deutsche Bank AG are among those who see the index hitting 5,000 or higher next year, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc’s David Kostin thinks the US stock benchmark will at least come close to its previous peak.
Even Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, a staunch equity bear, has turned more constructive on equities, predicting the S&P 500 will close at 4,500.
