July Forecast: Wall Street Braces for Volatility Amid 4 Market-Shaping Events

investing.com:

Stocks on Wall Street are on pace to end June on an upbeat note as a recent batch of strong economic data helped ease recession fears.

The economically sensitive Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks is on track to come out on top in June, with a roughly 7.5% gain heading into the final trading session of the month.

Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and the benchmark S&P 500 index are both about 5% higher this month and are on track to book their fourth straight monthly advances.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrials Average is the relative underperformer, up just 3.7%.

As June comes to an end, investors should prepare themselves for fresh volatility in July, which has a reputation for being a relatively strong month for the stock market. Since 1990, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 1% in July, making it the seventh-best month of the year in terms of performance returns.

As such, here are key dates to watch as the calendar flips to July:

The U.S. Labor Department will release the June jobs report at 8:30 AM ET (12:30 PM GMT) on Friday, July 7, and it will likely be key in determining the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision.

Forecasts center around a continued solid pace of hiring, even if the increase is smaller than in previous months.

The consensus estimate is that the data will show the U.S. economy added 200,000 positions, according to Investing.com, slowing from jobs growth of 339,000 in May.

The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 3.7%, staying close to a recent 53-year low of 3.4%.

Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, while the year-over-year rate is forecast to increase 4.1%, which is still too hot for the Fed.

Prediction:

The June consumer price