Labour faces an open goal in this week’s local elections. It mustn’t miss
This week’s local government elections take place against the backdrop of a deepening cost of living crisis. Inflation is at its highest level in three decades, and the worst is yet to come. With wages struggling to keep pace with rising prices, living standards are being eroded fast.
Throw in Partygate and the fact that it is mid-term for the current parliament, and all the conditions are in place for voters to give the government a proper kicking. The Conservatives expect to perform terribly, with good reason.
Arguably, though, the elections matter just as much – if not more – for the opposition parties than they do for the Tories. They will be a test of whether the Liberal Democrats can win in suburbia and in the south-west of England, and whether the Green party can translate public concern about the climate emergency into votes.
For Labour the stakes are even higher, because it needs to show it is on course to avoid a fifth successive general election defeat. The fact that the government is in such serious trouble puts added pressure on Keir Starmer to do well.
There are reasons why Labour’s gains could be limited. The seats being fought were last contested in 2018, when the Tories did badly. Much of the action in England will be in London and the other metropolitan cities, which are already Labour strongholds.
That said, in the past there has been a strong link between living standards and voting patterns. In the late 1970s, when Britain was also struggling with stagflation, the Tory opposition posted impressive byelection victories in what had been considered safe Labour seats and took control of the Greater London council. Margaret Thatcher’s victory at the 1979 general election was only partly due to the winter of
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