Look for November inflation to fall into Bank of Canada's target range, economists say

financialpost.com:

Another piece of the interest rate puzzle drops this week when Statistics Canada releases inflation data for November on Dec. 19.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are forecasting that consumer price index growth will decelerate to 2.8 per cent year over year from 3.1 per cent in October.

That would be just the second time since March 2021 that the reading has fallen within the Bank of Canada’s one- to three-per-cent target range for inflation.

“The two-per-cent inflation target is now in sight. And while we’re not there yet, the conditions increasingly appear to be in place to get us there,” Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said in a speech Friday.

Here’s what economists expect from this week’s inflation numbers:

RBC expects headline inflation to cool, reflecting the drop in gas and food prices.

They forecast core inflation, which excludes food and energy, to remain unchanged at 3.4 per cent year over year due to the rising cost of shelter.

“More than a third of the rise in ex-food and energy prices in Canada as of October came from mortgage interest costs as higher interest rates continue to flow through to household debt payments with a lag,” they said in a note.

The two measures of inflation the Bank of Canada favours should also cool “extending improvements seen in the prior month,” they said.

“Falling energy prices and the removal of the carbon tax from some household heating bills helped ease price pressures,” the bank’s senior director of Canadian economics said in a note. “Prices excluding food and energy tend to be seasonally weak in November,” which is why economists are calling for monthly inflation to fall by 0.2 per cent.

Shelter costs are now the main driver of inflation, with consumer price index