Marketmind: China seen steady as she goes on rates
By Jamie McGeever
(Reuters) — A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist.
China's latest interest rate decision will be the main focus for Asian markets on Monday, with investors also eyeing third-quarter GDP from Thailand, and trade figures from Malaysia and Taiwan.
Trading activity and volumes in Asia this week will be lighter than usual owing to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday later in the week, but sentiment appears to be holding up well thanks to a general loosening of financial conditions.
Bond yields around the world, led by Treasury yields, are falling as inflation pressures ease, economic activity cools and oil prices slide.
For the most part, investors are riding the wave — world stocks, Wall Street, and Japan's Nikkei last week all rose for a third straight week, and Asia ex-Japan rose 3%. China's blue chip CSI300 index, however, had its first fall in four weeks.
Equity and currency market volatility are well anchored, and while bond market volatility is more elevated, it is in the middle of its range over the past year excluding the U.S. banking shock in March.
On Monday, the People's Bank of China is widely expected to leave lending benchmark rates unchanged. All 26 market watchers in a Reuters poll expect the one-year and five-year loan prime rates to be held steady at 3.45% and 4.20%, respectively.
Most economists believe China's economy needs more stimulus, but this would expand downward pressure on the yuan and risk increasing capital and portfolio outflows.
Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that net FX outflows in October totaled $41 billion, compared with $75 billion in September. That's over $100 billion outflows in just two months.
It is why Beijing's
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