Was CoP-28 a cop-out or did the conference achieve something?
how to apply it in practice. If there were some way we could agree on a fair share for every country in the global carbon budget, countries could be required only to live within this share, while being left free to determine how to do it. Net zero dates would be irrelevant.
A country should have the choice of reaching net zero later if it is willing to live within its budget. It is difficult to see how agreement could be reached on a fair share for each of 198 countries. Can we perhaps reduce the scale of the task by considering whether it can be determined for the G20 countries? This group accounts for 81% of total global emissions and its composition includes fossil-fuel exporters and importers.
A solution acceptable to the G20 could provide the basis for fixing shares for all countries and be accepted at a future CoP. Perhaps the G20 troika, comprising Brazil as its current president and India and South Africa as the previous and next presidents, respectively, could propose setting up an international expert committee to suggest credible ways of distributing the remaining carbon budget among G20 countries. It will not be easy to achieve such an agreement, but if the G20 can’t do it, we will have to reconcile ourselves to moving from one CoP to another with little more than just general exhortations on the need for determined action.
Another dimension for judging the UAE Consensus is what it says about financial assistance to developing countries. The Consensus mentions the historical inequity facing developing countries because developed countries have used up a disproportionate share of the available global carbon budget. Providing adequate financial assistance is obviously one way of correcting this inequity.
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