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livemint.com / 2 months ago
livemint.com / 2 months ago
Middle East tensions pose a risk to L&T’s order inflow, execution
Over a decade ago, domestic projects had dominated L&T’s business, but the picture is different now. As on 31 December, 49% of its ₹7.33 trillion order book came from international markets, and India contributed the rest.
The Middle East accounts for 75.5% of the international order book. For the nine months ended December (9MFY26), the Middle East contributed 33% of the ₹3.45 trillion order inflow and 34% of its ₹2 trillion consolidated revenues.L&T’s order prospects pipeline for the March quarter (Q4FY26) stands at ₹5.92 trillion, including ₹1.26 trillion for the Hydrocarbon segment.
The overseas market is expected to contribute a large part of this pipeline. “Given the ongoing hostilities, we see about 10% impact on the FY26 order inflow, basis the order prospect pipeline,” said Emkay Global Financial Services in a report on 4 March.
“For L&T, 12,000-15,000 workers are presently working in the Middle East region. While it is difficult to assess the current situation, we estimate that L&T’s core earnings will be negatively impacted by 11-12% for FY27E/28E, assuming a three-month execution delay and low order inflow mainly in the hydrocarbon segment,” it added.The ongoing conflict comes at a time when L&T has already been struggling with weak execution in recent quarters despite robust orders.
The management had reiterated its FY26 revenue growth guidance of 15% while announcing Q3 results, anticipating “the customary ramp-up in project execution during Q4.” L&T’s projects & manufacturing Ebitda margin stood at 7.9% for 9MFY26 vis-à-vis the company’s target of 8.5% for the full year FY26.Depending on the timeline and impact of the conflict, a potential threat to the margin persists. “A boom in the real estate segment in
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