Moody's cuts China credit outlook to negative, cites lower growth, property risks
(Reuters) -Ratings agency Moody's (NYSE:MCO) on Tuesday cut its outlook on China's government credit ratings to negative from stable, citing lower medium-term economic growth and risks from a major correction in the country's vast property sector.
The downgrade reflects growing evidence that authorities will have to provide financial support for debt-laden local governments and state firms, posing broad risks to China's fiscal, economic and institutional strength, Moody's said in a statement.
«The outlook change also reflects the increased risks related to structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth and the ongoing downsizing of the property sector,» Moody's said.
The move by Moody's was its first change on its China view since it cut its rating by one notch to A1 in 2017, also citing expectations of slowing growth and rising debt.
While Moody's affirmed China's A1 long-term local and foreign-currency issuer ratings on Tuesday, it said it expects the country's annual GDP growth to slow to 4.0% in 2024 and 2025, and to average 3.8% from 2026 to 2030.
Most analysts believe the economy is on track to hit the government's annual growth target of around 5% this year, but activity is highly uneven.
The world's second-biggest economy has struggled to mount a strong post-COVID recovery as a deepening crisis in the housing market, local government debt risks, slow global growth and geopolitical tensions have dented momentum. A flurry of policy support measures have proven only modestly beneficial, raising pressure on authorities to roll out more stimulus.
Local government debt reached 92 trillion yuan ($12.6 trillion), or 76% of China's economic output in 2022, up from 62.2% in 2019, according to the latest
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