Navigating volatility: Here are Rajesh Palviya’s stock strategies for the coming week
ET Now: How are the markets shaping up currently?
Rajesh Palviya: Last week, we projected a range of 19200 to 19600, and we're now near the lower end at 19200. Nifty tried breaking above 19500-19550 but faced resistance from aggressive call writers at 19500-19400. As we approach August's expiry week, call writing is seen at 19300-19400 strikes, indicating a shift in call writers' positions downward.
Meanwhile, put writers shifted to 19200-19000 levels.
Nifty is at a crucial juncture; slipping below 19200 could trigger a 200-point decline. If it goes below 19200, the next level is around 19000. Recent data show short buildup in Nifty and long unwinding in Bank Nifty, both indices now below their 250-day moving averages.
All factors suggest a supply-led market in the near term. If Nifty fails to breach 19350, a dip to 19200 and even 19000 is likely. Bank Nifty below 44300 (major put base) could invite more supply, pushing it towards 43800-43700 based on technical and derivative analysis.
Both indices seem weak, indicating more pressure ahead.
ET Now: How about Reliance Industries? Despite Jio Financial's prominence this week and the AGM coming up, the stock faced selling pressure. Trading below 2500, can we expect more weakness and its impact on the index?
Rajesh Palviya: Reliance has undergone corrective movement, impacting the index. The stock is near vital support at 2450-2440, levels it hasn't breached since May 2023.
If it falls below 2440, we could witness more decline to 2400 or even 2390. Data indicates key support at 2450, 2420, implying potential pullback if above 2440. Momentum might drive it to 2500, 2520, a major supply zone.
ET Now: Any stocks to watch next week?
Rajesh Palviya: Firstly, in the media sector,
