NDA's '400 paar' dream faces reality check, Bernstein report suggests
Bernstein Societe General Group's latest India Strategy report provides insights into the country's political and economic scenarios. While the first phase of polling has been completed, the report indicates a prevailing optimism regarding the incumbent government's performance. However, it also highlights the challenges that lie ahead in achieving these expectations.
Pre-election Euphoria and Market Trends
The report notes that India experienced record-high valuations, particularly in the small and mid-cap sectors, at the beginning of the year. Despite some stabilization during the months of January, February, and March, there has been a recent resurgence, with small caps rising by 4% and mid-caps by 2% this month.
Expectations and Projections
With expectations of continuity in power and the possibility of the ruling party coalition winning over 400 seats, a pre-election euphoria is building up. The report suggests that the optimistic scenario, where the incumbent government secures a landslide victory, has become the new base case. Opinion polls project a substantial majority for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with some predicting a staggering 411 seats for the coalition.
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