Nuclear weapons stopped invasions. Then Ukrainian troops poured into Russia.
Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk isn’t just a brash bid to upend Russia’s invasion. It also marks the first time that a declared nuclear power has faced invasion and occupation by another country. For decades, nuclear-escalation theory has presumed that countries with atomic weapons were largely immune from attack because an aggressor risked triggering armageddon.
Relatively small states including Israel, Iran, North Korea and Libya have pursued nuclear arms in part to deter attacks by larger, better-armed adversaries. Nuclear powers have scuffled: India has had border skirmishes with China and Pakistan. Palestinian Hamas militants in October stormed into Israel, which is widely believed to have nuclear weapons.
But generally the threat of annihilation has protected nuclear-armed countries from large-scale attack and kept peace between them. Ukraine isn’t a nuclear power and is outgunned by Russia, yet Kyiv has managed for more than three weeks to control territory now totaling almost 500 square miles. It is a stunning twist.
Strategists over the years have frequently envisaged countries from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization grabbing Russian turf in a fight, not a beleaguered underdog doing it. Now Western leaders, military thinkers and nuclear theorists are puzzling over what current events mean for prospects of Russian escalation—and for future war gaming. Theoretical risk faces a real-world test, forcing a re-examination of the role nuclear weapons can play in deterrence.
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