ONGC Q3 results today: What to expect and key things to track

ONGC's numbers in the third quarter on a year-on-year basis. However, the state-owned oil and gas company is expected to have a steady quarter on a sequential basis.

Here's what to expect from ONGC's Q3:

Core Earnings

Net profit for the third quarter is likely to fall around 13% year-on-year, according to an average estimate of four brokerages. On a sequential basis, profit is seen dropping by a marginal 1%.

Revenue from operations in the third quarter may drop 9% year-on-year, an average estimate of four brokerages shows.

EBITDA

EBITDA for the quarter will largely be flat quarter-on-quarter, as marginally higher crude oil/gas sales will likely be offset by marginally lower realisations.

Realisations

Oil realisations are likely to decline 6% year-on-year, in line with Brent movement in the reporting quarter.

The lower Brent prices would be partly offset by a reduction in windfall taxes. Benchmark crude (Brent) has fallen 7% year-on-year in Q3FY24. APM gas prices have also plunged 24% YoY to $6.5 per mmbtu based on Kirit Parikh committee recommendation applicable from April 2023.

JM Financial assumes net crude realisation at $72.5 per bbl in line with Brent price less windfall tax of $10 per bbl on domestic crude output.

Brokerages Take

Kotak Equities is modelling overall crude oil sales volumes of 4.7 mmt, natural gas sales volumes at 4.1 bcm and gross crude price realization of US$82.6 per bbl.

Key Monitorables

Update on the first oil from the KG Basin and ramp-up of gas production remain the key