Optimistic about Q2 growth: RBI's Das

livemint.com:

MUMBAI : Second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) numbers, “in all probability", will surprise on the upside, Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das on Tuesday said. The RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC) has pegged Q2 GDP growth at 6.5%. GDP growth in Q1 stood at 7.8%.

“Looking at the momentum of economic activity—a few early data points have come in—I expect Q2 GDP numbers which will come at the end of November in all probability will surprise on the upside," said Das. Das, who was speaking at an event in Mumbai, said geopolitical uncertainty will be the biggest risk to global growth. India however is better placed to deal with any potential uncertainties, he added.

Speaking on the issue of bond inclusion, Das said “RBI has a track record of handling the double-edged sword of bond inclusion. We can handle large scale outflows, large scale inflows." In September this year, JP Morgan Chase & Co decided to include India in its emerging market global indices. The bonds will be included in the indices over 10 months, starting 28 June 2024.

In the case of India, given macroeconomic stability and financial sector stability, passive investors are looking at other aspects of the economy, said Das, adding that he does not think India will see that kind of volatility. “Should something like that happen, RBI has the capacity to deal with it and deal with it effectively," he said. Das also said that cryptocurrency is a serious financial stability risk for all countries, especially for emerging market economies.

He said that RBI is not against innovation if it serves public interest. “How will you regulate it, whom will you regulate, and what will you regulate?" he asked. He also referred to a recent International