Pharma Q3 preview: Core business, India growth to offset Revlimid pain
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. As India’s pharmaceutical sector kicks off its earnings season for the quarter ended December on Friday, analysts expect muted margins. A key reason for this is the loss of patent exclusivity for the blood cancer drug Revlimid in the US.
While the Revlimid loss is expected to hit overall US sales, steady domestic growth and momentum in the base business may soften the impact. Several Indian drugmakers, such as Dr Reddy’s, Cipla, Zydus Lifesciences, and Sun Pharma, inked settlements with Revlimid’s innovator, Mylan, to sell the drug in limited quantities from 2022 until its patent expiry in January 2026. The drug, clocking total global sales of over $100 billion since launch, has significantly boosted revenue and margins for Indian players.
Companies have been offloading their remaining quotas through this year, with declining sales throughout FY26. This quarter is expected to see similar pains. “We expect Ebitda margin declines for Dr Reddy’s, Cipla and Zydus Lifesciences due to sharp erosion in gRevlimid (generic Revlimid) prices as players look to offload remaining quotas before patent expiry," said BNP Paribas healthcare and pharma analyst Tausif Shaikh in a note dated 13 January.
Kotak Securities analysts expect earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) margins to decline 150 bps year-on-year for the sector. Apart from the Revlimid loss, generic price competition in the US, increasedresearch & development (R&D), selling, general & administrative (SG&A) costs and additionof new medical representatives in the India business are likely to impact margins in Q3, HDFC Securities said in a 9 January note. “We expect overall US sales for our coverage to
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