Plateauing out? Fatigue in Indian economy may cap equity returns: Venugopal Garre
Venugopal Garre, MD,Bernstein, says China recovery is positive for India, and not negative for India. From a broader India perspective, India is going potentially through a phase of fatigue in the economy which is going to impact earnings as well. So, we need to watch more for that as a challenge for capping Indian equity returns than anything else. Derivative drivers, be it aspects around IIPs, production levels and things like cement demand, across the board we see some degree of fatigue which is more derivative in nature in terms of demand.
Let us understand your view of the world. Exactly a week ago, the concerns for equity markets were abundant – China, US macro data, and the Middle East crisis. At least for the moment, two out of those three concerns have taken a backseat.
Venugopal Garre: We need to be a bit more concerned about India's own drivers rather than what has happened externally in my view. So, if you were to just think through, my concern externally is not really much linked to China, because I think a China recovery, whatever the reasons be, is actually positive for India, not negative for India in my view. We can discuss that, but that has been my stated view.
Coming to the Middle East, there are broader concerns as to what could happen to crude and commodities in general, it is something that we need to watch, because that is going to be very volatile and could shape up very differently from what one would want it to expect or expect that to happen over the next couple of months.
So, we still
