Q1FY24 earnings preview: OMCs to post strong growth; metals to see fall in income; here's what top brokerages say

livemint.com:

Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) expects Nifty earnings to grow 25 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in Q1FY24 while earnings of its coverage universe may jump 49 per cent YoY. Motilal Oswal said OMC’s (oil marketing companies) profitability may surge to ₹40,500 crore in Q1FY24 from a loss of ₹18,500 crore in Q1FY23 owing to strong marketing margins. Excluding OMC, MOFSL and Nifty’s earnings should rise 12 per cent and 11 per cent YoY, respectively, for the quarter.

"The overall earnings growth is likely to be driven once again by domestic cyclical such as BFSI and auto, which are expected to post 47 per cent and 11 times YoY jump while consumer and IT are likely to report a healthy 19 per cent and 16 per cent YoY growth, respectively," Motilal Oswal said. "Metals and cement are anticipated to drag the aggregates with a 53 per cent and 17 per cent YoY decline in earnings, respectively. We have marginally cut our FY24 and FY25E Nifty EPS (earnings per share) estimates by 0.8 per cent and 0.5 per cent to ₹964 and ₹1,113 respectively.

We now forecast the Nifty EPS to grow 20 per cent in FY24 and 15 per cent in FY25. Excluding commodities, FY24E Nifty earnings are likely to grow at 16 per cent YoY," said Motilal Oswal. The EBITDA margin for Nifty companies, excluding OMC and financials, is likely to expand 110 bps YoY to 20.8 per cent during the quarter.

as per the estimates of the brokerage firm. EBITDA margin may expand 80 bps YoY for the MOFSL universe (excluding Oil & Gas and financials) to 19.1 per cent. Brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) expects the Q1FY24 net income of the KIE universe to increase 46 per cent YoY on an overall basis.