Real test of Opposition unity: Deal over seats

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

During their second meeting in Bengaluru on Tuesday, these parties had decided to work on state-specific alliances in coming meetings. But coming together is tough not only because they have been fighting each other in many states but also because almost all of them have grown at the expense of the other — mainly Congress. Not to forget there is also a strong BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi which has shown its resilience election after election.

ET has looked at the equation among the parties in states where the alliance is yet to find a solution:Jammu and Kashmir For the alliance to work from Kashmir to Kanyakumari, the first challenge comes up in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir itself. A look at the past two Lok Sabha polls indicates three parties in the alliance — Congress, National Conference (NC) and People's Democratic Party (PDP) — have been at loggerheads. In 2014, there was a state government with NC and Congress as partners.

Both the parties contested the LS elections in alliance, but couldn't win a single seat. Out of the five Lok Sabha seats in J&K, PDP won all three seats of the valley, Srinagar, Baramulla and Anantnag. BJP won the remaining two, Jammu and Udhampur.

In 2019, the three parties contested separately, but both NC and PDP left Jammu and Udhampur for Congress. In the valley, NC won all the three seats while BJP retained Jammu and Udhampur with more than 50% votes. In the three valley seats, NC and PDP fight for the same vote share and historically NC has been stronger.

In fact, PDP won the Srinagar and Baramulla seat only once in the last four elections. In 2019, PDP was in third position on both these seats. In Anantnag, NC and PDP have been winning alternatively.