Retail milk prices may increase 4-5% in FY24: Crisil director Pushan Sharma
New Delhi: Prices of retail milk are expected to go up 4-5% year-on-year in FY24 because of dairy processors fail to recover the cost, which has been hit throughout pandemic, especially during the second wave amid higher commodities prices pushing up fodder prices and weighing on milk productivity, Crisil director Pushan Sharma told Mint in an interview. This comes at a time when retail milk prices have shot up by 10% in a year and nearly 22% in three years.
Milk prices may also rise if productivity gets hit because of anticipated poor monsoon in August and September and fodder prices continue to remain sticky or increase. Sharma further said that poor kharif sowing was caused initially by rain deficiency, with the situation exacerbated by the rain deluge; which may lead to resowing thereby disturbing the crop calendar and switching to short term crops.
In the middle term, rice prices are likely to remain firm because of lower FCI stock and the government announcing higher minimum support price for paddy. After a significant rise in almost all vegetable prices, especially tomato, the agriculture economist sees onion prices going up as most of stocks to be exhausted by around mid-September.
Also, rising global temperature causing more pest attacks may weigh on farm crop productivity and thus production in coming days as there is a correlation between metabolic rate of pests and temperature. Speaking about edible oil import outlook, Sharma said India may rely more on Brazil than Argentina to meet its soyoil demand, as the soybean production in the US is hit because of a drought-like situation.
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