Many of my friends in the US, even the ones I consider well educated and reasonable in their views, have turned dejected with the social and political discourse in their country. Some have even remarked to me that they expect a ‘civil war’ in their country sometime soon. I do not believe this is the case; nonetheless, there are two salient contributing factors which I will discuss here: one is technological change, and the other, demographic change.
Last November, a long piece collation in The Guardian by Barbara Walter, Stephen Marche and Christopher Parker (bit.ly/3qV6qXR) made the case that “conditions were ripe for civil violence." Upon reading details, it became apparent that Walters, Marche and Parker were also trying to promote their own books on the subject. Predicting specific events like a civil war is inherently challenging, especially for a complex and multifaceted country like the US. However, there are some factors that are often mentioned in discussions about social cohesion and potential civil unrest.
First, the US has witnessed growing political polarization in recent years. This means that the two major political groups (Republicans and Democrats) have moved further apart in their beliefs and are less willing to compromise. This is a departure from the earlier political discourse, where neither the “loony left" nor the “rabid right" made decisions, while the moderates who formed the bulk of both parties typically had similar views, hence allowing for a consensus on moderate policies and social milieus.
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