The GOP’s Third Gamble on Donald Trump
Donald Trump’s dominance of the primaries on Super Tuesday means the die is cast for a rerun of his 2020 match with President Biden. Hard to believe: The two major parties are marching to nominate perhaps the only candidates who could lose to the other. It’s America’s great presidential unpopularity contest.
This isn’t to gainsay Mr. Trump’s triumph in the GOP primaries. He lost only one contest at this writing—in the District of Columbia to Nikki Haley.
He underperformed his polling in most states, but his strength among Republicans makes us wonder in retrospect if anyone could have beaten him this year as he ran almost as an incumbent seeking a second term. Like or loathe Mr. Trump, this is an unprecedented modern achievement.
Richard Nixon was nominated three times but not in a row. *** Yet this result wasn’t always certain. Fifteen months ago, in the wake of the GOP’s disappointing midterm showing for Mr.
Trump’s candidates, the former President looked like a weakening political force. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was on the rise.
Mr. Trump then charged into the race and spent months trashing Mr. DeSantis before the Governor formally entered the contest.
The former President ducked the GOP debates, betting that his standing as a quasi-incumbent would carry the day. He was also helped by fond voter recollection of the Trump economy, especially after the Biden inflation. It’s possible the race was over once Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg indicted him for hush-money payments on jerry-rigged felony charges that should be no more than a misdemeanor.
Mr. Trump jumped in the primary polls and kept rising despite the successive indictments. (See the nearby polling timeline.) The Democratic lawfare strategy worked in
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