The week in charts: Monetary policy, fertilizer subsidy, weak monsoon forecast
The RBI’s monetary policy committee kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, reflecting the wait-and-watch approach adopted by global peers such as the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank amid the war in West Asia. The RBI pegged FY27 GDP growth at 6.9% under the new GDP (gross domestic product) series, down from FY26 growth estimate of 7.6%. The central bank flagged risks from Strait of Hormuz disruptions and high energy prices.
It trimmed growth estimates for the first two quarters of FY27 compared with its February outlook—Q1 to 6.8% from 6.9% and Q2 to 6.7% from 7.0%. In February, the RBI had released data for only the first two quarters of FY27 pending the updates in the GDP series. The Union cabinet on Wednesday approved ₹41,534 crore in nutrient-based subsidies (NBS) for phosphatic and potassic fertilizers for the 2026 kharif season.
The amount is ₹4,317 crore higher than the kharif subsidy for 2025 and comes as escalating conflict in West Asia has pushed up prices of key fertilizer inputs. Key fertilizers covered under the NBS scheme include Diammonium Phosphate (DAP), Muriate of Potash (MOP), and various Nitrogen, Phosphate, Potash, and Sulphur (NPKS) grades. India is the largest importer of DAP and a major buyer of other fertilizers.The higher outlay risks pushing up India’s fertilizer subsidy bill.
For FY27, the government has budgeted ₹54,000 crore for NBS of the total fertilizer subsidy allocation of ₹1.7 trillion. Past trends show the actual spending has often exceeded the budgeted amount.41: The number of consecutive days Iran’s nationwide internet blackout has lasted as of Thursday, amounting to 960 hours, according to NetBlocks. It is the longest countrywide shutdown on record.$7
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