Too big to fail: Why IndiGo cancellations turned into a national crisis

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. An unprecedented crisis gripped India’s aviation sector in the past week, leaving thousands of passengers stranded as flights were first delayed and then cancelled. At the centre of the disruption is IndiGo, which has cancelled more than 2,000 flights, blaming “unforeseen operational challenges." In reality, the trigger, the introduction of the Crew and Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) rules, was hardly unforeseen.

The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) drafted revised norms in January 2024, gave airlines months to prepare with a phased rollout beginning July 2025, and scheduled the final phase for November. Yet IndiGo, operating on a lean staffing model designed to minimize costs, was unprepared. The current crisis underscores deeper structural issues in India’s aviation industry.

Once an eight-carrier market in 2014, the domestic sector is now dominated by four airlines: IndiGo, Air India Group, SpiceJet and Akasa Air. Despite India being the world’s fifth-largest domestic aviation market, just two airlines control over 90% of it—IndiGo alone holds roughly 65%. Naturally, this translates into IndiGo operating at least 50% of the flights in the country.

A Mint analysis of the winter schedule of approved domestic flights shows IndiGo operating 56% of the flights on domestic routes for the week ending 14 December. This means that the operational challenges at IndiGo will continue to disproportionately affect the flight operations. Moreover, IndiGo’s fleet towers over other airlines so significantly that they lack the capacity to absorb the passengers, leaving the entire system paralyzed.