Top fertiliser maker says ‘Black Swan’ jolts are finally easing
fertiliser demand is just now starting to stabilise from seismic shocks of the past few years that left the company with wild profit swings.
“We’re getting back at least to a market that we would call stable,” Nutrien Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Ken Seitz said Wednesday in an interview at Bloomberg’s headquarters in New York.
Black Swan-like events — unanticipated calamities that pull markets into a tailspin — upended the typical cycles of the market, the CEO said. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine disrupted global fertiliser shipments and pushed prices — and Nutrien earnings — to record heights. But as farmers and retailers balked at the sticker shock, demand tumbled.
Nutrien and its rivals have been predicting better market conditions over the past several quarters that so far have yet to materialise. The Canadian company’s earnings plunged 71% in the first quarter. Its shares, meanwhile, have tumbled more than 50% from a record in April 2022, shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“We are looking at demand that is after a very volatile period, with some demand destruction, that is only today returning to sort of trend levels,” Seitz said, noting that fertiliser prices today are below the 10-year average.
Nutrien has responded by scrapping big investment plans and putting some assets up for sale in South America as it focuses on restoring growth.
While some earlier supply disruptions have eased, shipping remains a challenge amid the ongoing crisis in the Red Sea region. Trade routes for fertiliser have
