Trump’s return: There are many small reasons but three big ones

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Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The US elections are over and the outcome is an uncontestable victory for Donald Trump and the Republican Party. Trump got 50.4% of the national vote, a margin of more than 2 percentage points over Kamala Harris.

This signals a decisive victory by recent US election standards. He won all seven swing states and got about the same number of votes in 2024 as in 2020 (Harris got 10 million fewer than Joe Biden had that year). Before we hold our breath again in anticipation of the antics to come from the Trump administration, let us try to look for some explanation of the outcome.

There are two sets of possible explanations. The first set, which dominates the media, can be grouped together as ‘short term’ or ‘only this election.’ These are the most direct and obvious explanations that treat this—and every election—as a unique case with its own dynamics. In this line of thinking, changing candidates or messaging or timing could have yielded a different outcome.

These include: It’s Biden’s fault: He blocked the Democratic primary process by insisting on running for president although he was mentally and physically unfit, which increased disdain for him and resulted in a candidate, Harris, who was not vetted by party members and had little time to prepare. It’s Harris’s fault: She ran a poor campaign, her message was muddled and advertising insipid; her only arguments were ‘I am pro-abortion’ and ‘I’m not Trump,’ she never acknowledged the struggles of the working class, and was seen as weak. Trump is a charismatic and transformational figure: He ran a focused campaign with a clear message; he understands the post-truth world better than anyone else; he has the ability to manipulate people’s