Trump vs. Biden: An economic gamble either way

livemint.com:

Blaming corporate greed for inflation isn’t working. Hence Team Biden’s new deflection: Donald Trump would make inflation worse. The president’s chihuahuas in the press are running with the line.

“Trump’s inflation bomb: How his second-term plans could make it worse," reads an Axios headline. The Atlantic warns of Mr. Trump’s plan to “supercharge inflation," while the New York Times states: “Trump Vows to Lower Prices.

Some of His Policies May Raise Them." The stories point to Mr. Trump’s immigration, tariff and tax-cut plans. It’s true that another Trump presidency would carry economic risks, though they pale in comparison with a second Biden term.

The biggest danger if either wins is a recession exacerbated by policy mistakes. Start with Mr. Trump’s promise to deport undocumented immigrants en masse, which would reduce the supply of workers, especially in such industries as construction and agriculture.

A worker shortage would push up wages and prices. It could also reduce the availability of some goods and services, which would have the same effect. Mr.

Trump would struggle to execute his deportation plans owing to limited government resources and resistance by progressive “sanctuary" cities and states. He’s more likely to succeed at reducing the flow of migrants across the southern border, though it’s doubtful doing so would hurt the economy. The current flood of migrants—around six times as high as during the Obama and Trump administrations—is unsustainable.

Increased foreign immigration helped ease a worker shortage during the early years of Mr. Biden’s presidency, but most recent migrants aren’t working. They’re stretching the government safety net to a breaking point.