Trying to predict what the Indian voter will choose: A weathervane job?
The recent Lokniti pre-poll voter survey was played up in press reports for the wrong reasons. Voters’ party preferences got headlines, but pre-poll findings on party shares are always suspect because voters may not have finally chosen, or might not reveal their true choice even if they have. What the survey yielded of value was issues of concern to voters.
It provided a pointer to contesting parties about what to focus on in their campaigns. Employment and inflation are the two issues of topmost concern. Climate change has not entered the popular conversation, even though this is not some dour bell tolling death in the distance, but a more urgent and ever-present threat of disruption of everyday life through extreme climate events.
In every survey, the wording in which responses are phrased matters. Employment could be ‘rozgaari,’ a term derived from the single-day duration of hiring in the agricultural context. Educated respondents might use the term ‘naukri,’ for the longer-duration contracts being sought.
Ultimately, neither rozgaari nor naukri quite captures what the respondent is looking for, which is livelihood (jeevika). Parties have to outline what they will do to restore widespread access to livelihoods. I am compelled to sound yet again the stroke-of-the-pen reform I have consistently advanced as the way out.
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