Two wars, 50 elections: The economy faces rising geopolitical risks
The risk of escalating conflict in the Middle East is the latest in a string of unpredictable crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, that have landed like swipes of a bear claw on the global economy, smacking it off course and leaving scars.
As if that weren't enough, more volatility lies ahead in the form of a wave of national elections whose repercussions could be deep and long. More than 2 billion people in roughly 50 countries, including India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, the United States and the 27 nations of the European Parliament, will head to the polls. Altogether, participants in 2024's elections olympiad account for 60% of the world's economic output.
In robust democracies, elections are taking place as mistrust in government is rising, electorates are bitterly divided, and there is a profound and abiding anxiety over economic prospects.
Even in countries where elections are neither free nor fair, leaders are sensitive to the economy's health. President Vladimir Putin's decision this fall to require exporters to convert foreign currency into rubles was probably done with an eye on propping up the ruble and tamping down prices before Russia's presidential elections in March.
The winners will determine crucial policy decisions affecting factory subsidies, tax breaks, technology transfers, the development of artificial intelligence, regulatory controls, trade barriers, investments, debt relief and the energy transition.
A rash of electoral victories that carry angry populists into power could push governments toward tighter control of trade, foreign investment and immigration. Such policies, said Diane Coyle, a
